A guide to the 2015 Greek election results

Previous posts on Greece

• Is Europe's far-right heading for power?-Part 2:Greece
• Greece goes back to the polls

Greece's snap election took place on the 25th of January, and the result was a change of government. The New Democracy-PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement) coalition government was defeated, and was replaced by a SYRIZA-Independent Greeks coalition government. What this will mean for Greece's economic future is still unclear: however, the election itself has proved to be an interesting contest.

Details of the election

The result of the election is below. All parties that held seats before dissolution or won seats are listed below. Seat changes are calculated on the basis of the seat distribution on the 6th of January.

Greek election results (click on picture for larger size). Note: Seat change will not add up to zero, as the Independent Democratic Group of MPs did not contest the election. Democratic Left total is total for Democratic Left-Green coalition.

The above graph is not strictly in order, as the Democratic Socialist Movement and Democratic Left are seperated by four parties, but this is not really relevant.

As I have explained before, Greece uses a system of bonus-adjusted proportional representation. Votes are cast for parties, and the party with the most votes is awarded 50 seats. The remaining 250 seats are distributed amongst parties with over 3% of the vote using proportional representation. This usually means that the largest party has enough of an advantage in terms of seats to form government.

If the 50 seat bonus were abolished and all 300 seats were distributed through proportional representation, SYRIZA and Independent Greeks would have just 135 seats; not enough for a majority.

The state of the parties

SYRIZA: The last five years have seen a meteoric rise for SYRIZA. From just 6 parliamentary seats in 2004, the party has grown to nearly have an overall majority in Greece's parliament. However, such a meteoric rise could possibly lead to a dramatic collapse of support if SYRIZA fail to properly implement their promises. The possibility of such a collapse must worry Alexis Tsipras somewhat. However, SYRIZA managed to harness anti-austerity sentiment extremely well, and they managed to win government despite a small original support base.

New Democracy: Being viewed as the 'party of austerity' has cost the New Democracy party dearly. While 2015 was not their worst performance (that honour belongs to their result in May 2012, when they won just 19% of the vote), it is a poor result for a party that until 2009 had never fallen below 35% of the vote in its history. However, they have managed to keep control of the centre-right vote, which their centre-left counterpart PASOK failed to do. They are also in a strong position to return to government if SYRIZA falls over.

Golden Dawn: This party, one of the few European parliamentary parties deserving of the title 'neo-Nazi', has received a lot of international media attention. However, their performance in this election was rather poor, and it appears that they have hit the ceiling. This is a good thing for Greece; along with the Communists, Golden Dawn were refusing to negotiate with any other party to form government, and Greece does not need more obstructionist MPs. This is not to mention their extremist stances on racial issues.

To Potami: This liberal centrist party has performed extremely well in this election, especially considering the poor performances of liberal parties in Greece during the recession. This may be due to the anti-corruption image of leader and TV journalist Stavros Theodokrais, a factor lacking for other recession liberal groups. To Potami was a possible government coalition partner for SYRIZA, but was rejected.

Communist Party: Despite doing nothing at all for the entire recession (other than writing snarky rants on their English-language website), the Communist Party managed to make a fractional gain. This may be a bounce-back after their unusually poor performance in late 2012; nonetheless, the Communists have lost significant support to SYRIZA during the recession, perhaps as a backlash against the Communist Party's refusal to enter government with, well, anyone.

Independent Greeks: The right-wing soft nationalist anti-austerity Independent Greeks party performed poorly in this election. After a promising start in May 2012, when they won 10% of the vote, the party lost support in the June election, and lost support again in 2015. However, they will be in government, after SYRIZA decided to enter into a coalition with them, in a move that perhaps signals a more Eurosceptic stance of the new government. 

PASOK: Poor old PASOK. Once one of Greece's most powerful parties, this centre-left party has fallen to being the least popular party in the Greek parliament. Most of the party's leftist credentials have disappeared after their coalition with New Democracy. A stint in opposition will allow them to rebuild those credentials, and perhaps return to power at some later stage if SYRIZA fails. 

The others: The Democratic Socialist Movement, which was formed by former PASOK Prime Minister George Papandreou, failed to pass the threshold by 0.5%. This is somewhat historic for Greece; the Papandreous have provided three prime ministers for PASOK. The little parties didn't do very well, other than a relatively good result for the Union of Centrists (a hangover from the 1960s). Democratic Left, a centre-left party who entered the government in 2012 but left in protest against the closure of the national broadcaster, collapsed, winning only 0.49% in coalition with the Greens. This is even worse considering that the Greens won 0.5% of the vote at the European elections in 2014.

Possible changes to Greece's electoral law

SYRIZA have previously indicated a desire to change Greece's electoral system to pure proportional representation, abolishing the 3% threshold and the 50 seat bonus. Such a system would give the following results.

Party-Seats

SYRIZA-110

New Democracy-85

Golden Dawn-19

To Potami-18

Communist Party-17

Independent Greeks-14

PASOK-14

Democratic Socialist Movement-7

Union of Centrists-5

Teleia (centre-left social democrats)-5

Popular Orthodox Rally (right-wing nationalist)-3

Anticapitalist Left-2

Democratic Left/Greens-1

While government formation would be complicated, it would be possible. However, the extreme fragmentation that this system would cause may mean that SYRIZA will need little encouragement to put this idea on the shelf.

It is still unclear what SYRIZA will do for Greece in the long term. However, it seems that the government will be relatively stable in the short term.

Greece goes back to the polls

Greece, a country seriously economically damaged by the Global Financial Crisis, has been forced into an early election after the Greek Parliament failed to elect a President. Under the Greek Constitution, the President is expected to win three-fifths of the vote in Parliament, or 180 votes, to be elected. If no candidate wins 180 votes in Parliament, an election is held. My previous post on Greece provides some background.

The term of office of the incumbent Greek President, Karolos Papoulias, has recently expired, and the Greek Parliament must therefore elect a replacement. The table below shows the current balance of power in the Greek Parliament.

Balance of power in the Greek Parliament. Click on the picture for a close-up

The government consists of the New Democracy and Panhellenic Socialist (PASOK) parties. This coalition has 155 seats in the Greek Parliament. This is 25 votes short of the majority needed to elect a president.

One candidate was nominated for the presidency: New Democracy member Stavros Dimas. At the first ballot, Dimas recieved 160 votes. This is the votes from the coalition, plus 5 independents. The remaining members either voted 'present' or abstained.

At the second ballot, Dimas recieved 8 more votes, but was still short by 12. At this point, government members were furiously lobbying members of potentially friendly parties, like Democratic Left. However, the third ballot resulted in a failure by Dimas to recieve 180 votes. Three ballots are allowed before an election is called.

Who will win an election?

At present, the Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) is leading New Democracy in the polls by 4-6 points. Under Greece's electoral law, the party with the most votes wins a 50 seat bonus. This means that SYRIZA will be the largest party by a comfortable margin  if these polls are correct. However, with undecided voters in polls included, they have a relatively low vote (below 30%), meaning that they may not win a majority, or even come close. 

Out of all the other parties, SYRIZA have few friends. New Democracy and PASOK think that they are too leftist and anti-establishment, they are hated by the far-right in Golden Dawn for being leftist, and the Communists hate them for some reason to do with ideology (it's complicated). As a result, there may be some effort by members of other parties to tactically vote for New Democracy to stop SYRIZA. This may also mean that even if SYRIZA are the largest party, they would be unable to form a government.

It is worth pointing out that Golden Dawn's polling has recently dropped somewhat, and it has returned to the levels of the last election. The Independent Greeks vote has also dropped dramatically from the last election.

Now, the New Democracy polling has stayed much the same from the last election. And there is no way of telling where the Golden Dawn and Independent Greeks vote is going (as far as I know). However, New Democracy's leader, Antonis Samaras, was very confident in nominating Dimas, a politically polarising figure, for the office of President. If he didn't want an election, it would be possible to nominate a consensus candidate with the support of the independents. Instead, he may have it all planned out. It still seems like an odd way to solve a governability crisis.

After an election is held, a presidential candidate can be elected with a simple majority. This means that the government after the election will be able to chose the president.

Golden Dawn appears to have peaked, and is unlikely to win more seats at this election. Independent Greeks will likely lose seats. PASOK will also probably lose seats, even if they do disguise themselves as the 'Olive Tree' like in the Euro-elections. Democratic Left will be wiped out. The River , a centrist liberal party formed by journalist Stavros Theodokrais, will gain seats, and may be useful in supporting a pro-Euro government.

In short, this election is unlikely to improve Greece's political and economic stability. Any election will worry investors, and the possibility, however remote, of a SYRIZA victory will scare them even more.

For those who found that depressing, here are some goats playing on metal sheeting. Have a happy new year, readers!

Is Europe's far-right heading for power? Part 2-Greece

Following the most recent elections for the European parliament, many stories have been written about a 'far-right surge' in Europe. However, many of these claims appear to have been overstated, and some of the parties that have been alleged to have put in a good performance actually did not poll especially well, or poll in a way that stands to affect the long-term future of Europe or its countries.

Greece

Greece's far-right Golden Dawn party first entered parliament in the May 2012 national elections, after spending many years on the political sidelines. I am not here to dispute the status of this party as far-right, and it is probably second only to the German National Democrats as the most far-right party in the European Parliament. Members of the party have made many controversial statemnents in the past surrounding Nazi Germany, and the group's logo, well, resembles a swatstika.

The party's entry to the European Parliament was certainly noticed by the international media. However, the party's result (9.5% of the vote) was consistent with what opinion polls had been showing the party at.

In fact, the Greek European elections were very significant, but not really for Golden Dawn. The main contest of the election was between the governing centre-right New Democracy party, and the radical left-wing SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left). The election was widely regarded as a test of public confidence in the Greek recovery and economic direction.

The collapse of Greece's financial system during the Global Financial Crisis sent an earthquake through the nation's political system. At the first post-crisis election in 2012, the two traditional parties of Greek government, New Democracy and the Panhellinic Socialist Movement (PASOK) , won just 32% of the vote combined, down from 77% of the vote at the last election. PASOK fell the furthest, from 43% of the vote in 2009 to just 13% in May 2012.

Most of the PASOK vote was taken up by SYRIZA, a coalition of radical-leftist parties formed in 2004. The predecessor party Synaspismós (Coalition of the Progressive Left) was formed in the late 1980s. The group was marginalised in the 2000s, winning an average of 4% of the vote, and coming behind the far-right LAOS (Popular Orthodox Rally) and the KKE (Communist Party of Greece)

Interestingly, neither the KKE or LAOS benefited much in July 2012. LAOS had become discredited after it voted with PASOK in favour of the bailout. Much of the LAOS electorate moved to Golden Dawn. The KKE are still irrelevant. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the majority of ex-communist parties opted to modernise, accept the world order, and move on. KKE didn't do that, instead opting to hide under some coats and pretend that Joseph Stalin was still in control and that the Soviet Union was alive and well. They hate SYRIZA almost as much as they hate PASOK or New Democracy, they produce long and rambling communiques about topics that nobody cares about (in English!), and they refuse to participate in government. All in all, they aren't worth listening to.

Three new parties benefited from the collapse of the majors. The largest was Independent Greeks (ANEL), a split-off from New Democracy. They are a conservative, soft-nationalist, soft-Eurosceptic, anti-austerity party: sort of Golden Dawn Lite. A smaller group, Democratic Left (DIMAR), which split off from SYRIZA, is a centre-left pro-European party. Democratic Left claim to represent the centre-left ground between PASOK and SYRIZA. They are mildly anti-austerity, but they participate in a pro-austerity government, unlike SYRIZA. And then, there is Golden Dawn.

Golden Dawn are by no means new. The foundations were laid by the early 1980s, and the group stayed as an alliance of far-right thugs until 1993, when it was formally registered as a political party. It first ran in an election in 1994, winning 0.1% of the votes for the European Parliament. The party won 0.07% in the 1996 general election. The group put in a decent performance in the European elections in 1999, winning 0.75% in alliance with the far-right First Line party. The party won 0.3% in the 2009 election; at that point, they were still irrelevant.

However, the financial crisis breathed new life into the party. The party's relations with radical street gangs turned out to be an advantage, as these gangs were able to peform a kind of 'Robin Hood' role in standing up for the 'underdog' (as long as the underdog isn't a socialist, homosexual, an immigrant, or someone whose great-great-great-great grandfather wasn't authentically Greek). This positioning is in line with most other European far-right parties (socially conservative, but economically leftist). The party's lack of participation in govenment meant that they were a 'fresh face' for Greece, and their previous irrelevance fit in with Greece's anti-politican mood.

This positioning allowed Golden Dawn to enter parliament in July 2012. They won 7% of the vote, and 21 seats in the 300 member Greek Parliament. Their strong result, as well as strong results for other anti-austerity parties, meant that another election had to take place in June.

In the June elections, held after no government could be formed, the results were quite different. New Democracy won 29.7% of the vote, a gain of about 10%. SYRIZA won 27% of the vote: again, a gain of about 10%. PASOK fell to 12%, while ANEL's vote dropped 3% to 7%. Golden Dawn lost 0.05% of the vote and 3 seats, while DIMAR's vote went up fractionally (0.14%) but the party actually lost two seats. The Communists lost 4% of the vote and 14 seats. The extra-parliamentary parties generally lost votes, with the liberal Bridges alliance (a coalition of the centrist Action, Liberal Alliance and Recreate Greece parties), the Ecologist Greens, and the Popular Orthodox Rally, which all came close to the 3% threshold in May, losing votes.

The results were roughly in line with what had been expected. The election became polarised around the contest between SYRIZA and New Democracy, with all other parties losing out. However, the performances by Golden Dawn and DIMAR were unexpected. Golden Dawn might have been expected to lose out, given the increased profile given to its more extreme members (in one unfortunate incident, a Golden Dawn spokesperson physically assualted a leftist politician on live television.) However, they did okay. DIMAR, too, might have been expected to be squeezed by the New Democracy-SYRIZA contest, but they held their ground, and entered government.

The Actual European Election

The European election, held in May 2014 in conjunction with some local elections, saw a similar cast of parties. There were only two differences. PASOK had teamed up with a number of tiny irrelevant centre-left parties to form Elia (The Olive Tree). This appears to be more of a disguise for PASOK than an actual coalition of equals. However, this did not stop the party arguing over it, with former Prime Minister George Papendreou criticising the alliance (Admittedly, this criticism did come from a man who presided over the most disastrous election in the party's history).

The other new party was formed just before the European elections. It is called The River, and was founded by journalist Stavros Theodokrais. The party is socially liberal and socially democratic, but has vague policies, and trades heavily off the popularity of its leader. It is a member of the centre-left European Alliance of Socialists and Democrats. Along with this, there was the usual cast of irrelevant single-issue parties that come out at the European election.

Other then that, one might expect the election to result in a higher vote for protest parties, given that there was no need to elect a government. Adding to this, opinion polling had consistently shown that Golden Dawn was going to be Greece's third party.

So, what did the results look like? Well, they were good for SYRIZA, although somewhat underwhelming, as some within the party expected that the party would win 30% (which some polls had shown them at). Instead, they won 26.6%, about 4 points ahead of New Democracy. Golden Dawn managed 9.4% and third place, while Elia came fourth, with 8%. The River came fifth, with 6.6% of the vote. The Communists got 6.1%, while ANEL got just 3.5%.

The result was okay for Elia/PASOK. While 8% is by no means good, it is above the dismal polls for the party. Golden Dawn performed more or less about their polled numbers, while ND polled slightly below (Bear in mind that these are general election polls). DIMAR collapsed, with just 1.2% of the vote and no Members of the European Parliament.

But what does this mean for the governability of Greece? Well, in Greece, the electoral system is nationwide proportional representation, but with a 50 seat bonus for the largest party. Taking that into account, the results would be as below.

So, what would this mean for the future of Greece? Well, the current New Democracy-PASOK government would have only 113 seats, 38 seats short of a majority. SYRIZA would have to become part of government, as SYRIZA+Golden Dawn+KKE is equal to a majority. A SYRIZA-PASOK government would have a narrow majority of 154, while a SYRIZA-River coalition would have exactly 150 seats. Not an ideal scenario for stable government. However, the dreaded 'negative majority', where the two parties that will not participate in government (Golden Dawn and the Communists) win 151 seats, would not happen.

In fact, Golden Dawn has burned too many bridges to enter government. The closest party in terms of ideology is ANEL, and they are a party in decline. The chances of Golden Dawn having any serious input on government is highly unlikely, and the boost they have recieved by the recession is likely to disappear in any serious recovery, leaving them where they started.