2015 Swedish election cancelled

Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven

Sweden has been a well-covered topic on this blog, and for those starting anew, here is my post on the 2014 election, and here is my post on the proposed 2015 election. 

Anyway, the proposed 2015 election has been called off, after a deal between the centre-left Social Democrat-Green coalition and the centre-right Moderate-Liberal-Centre-Christian Democrat alliance to pass a budget.

In effect, it is a coalition agreement between the centre-left and centre-right. The centre-right, having more seats than the centre-left, will propose a budget. The centre-left will form government, and they will be permitted to change the budget somewhat. The centre-right will abstain on the budget. Both groups will have a common policy on pensions, military issues, and energy.This deal will last until 2022, remaining in force even after the next scheduled election in 2018. 

So, what does this mean for Sweden's future?

The coalition will be able to control Parliament, but it will come at a price. The far-right Sweden Democrats will gain significantly in the polls after an event like this. People who voted for a centre-right party thinking that they would be helping to elect a centre-right government may feel betrayed by the deal, and may respond to the centre-right's behaviour by voting for the far-right.

This idea is borne out by multiple cases. From 2005 to 2009, Germany was led by a grand coalition between Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democrats. Merkel became Chancellor, and the Social Democrats were perceived as sellouts. At the 2009 election, the Social Democrats lost 11% of the vote compared to 2005, with the Greens and Left parties gaining by about 3 points each. 

In Austria, the 2006 election was followed by a grand coalition between the centre-right Austrian People's Party and the Social Democrats. The Social Democrats got the prime ministership. When the Austrian People's Party pulled out of coalition, an election was called. At that election, both parties lost votes to the far-right, but the People's Party's losses were heavier.

In short, it is probable that the 2018 Sweden election will result in  losses for the centre-right and gains for the far-right. The current coalition will almost certainly control parliament from 2018 to 2022, but the tide of the Sweden Democrats will not be turned by this coalition, at least electorally.

Sweden 2015-The end of the two-coalition system as we know it (for now)

Sweden's 2014 election was covered before on this blog, but another one is taking place at the initiative of the Prime Minister, Stefan Lofven. Lofven, a Social Democrat who formed a minority government after the 2014 election, has called an election for the 22nd of March in 2015.

The 2014 election resulted in a 'victory' for the Social Democrats, at least in the sense of being the largest party. However, the Social Democrats won only 31% of the vote and 113 seats in the 349 member Riksdag (Swedish parliament). Exempting 2010, this is the worst result for the Social Democrats since 1914.

The main opposition Moderate Party, who governed from 2006 to 2014 in alliance with the centre-right Christian Democrat, Centre and Liberal parties, did poorly in the 2014 election. They won 23.3% of the vote and 84 seats. The result is the worst since 2002; the Swedish centre-right is more diverse than the left, and votes transfer between the four right-leaning parties more fluidly.

So, why all these bad results for the two largest parties in Sweden? Well, as explained in the previous post, the reason is all to do with the rise of the far-right Sweden Democrats. The party, traditionally marginalised in Sweden's political environment, entered the Riksdag with 5.7% of the vote in the 2010 election and won 20 seats.

The party's policies, attacking immigrants and the European Union while strongly supporting welfare programs were unattractive in the boom times of the 2000s, and irrelevant in the long period of Social Democrat government before Europe and immigration became problems.

However, the Global Financial Crisis gave new life to far-right and far-left movements across Europe. Established parties like the Irish Fianna Fail party and the Dutch Christian Democratic Appeal were decimated, and government formation was complicated in countries that needed stability.

In 2010, the Sweden Democrats had no impact on government formation. A poor performance by the Social Democrats allowed the Moderate-led government to win a minority government, which was able to keep the government in office for the full term.

However, the 2014 results were inconclusive. The left (Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party) won 159 seats, the centre-right won 141 seats, and the remaining 49 seats went to the Sweden Democrats. Social Democrat leader Stefan Lofven nonetheless became Prime Minister in a coalition with the Green Party.

To some extent, the coalition was doomed the moment it was formed. While Social Democrat-Greens  relations were cordial, the coalition simply did not have the votes. 138 votes, just 40% of the Riksdag, is simply not enough for a government.

Lofven's budget was defeated on the third of December with 182 votes against and 153 votes for and the Sweden Democrats and all centre-right parties voting against. After this defeat, it was blatantly obvious that the government could not continue. Lofven called a press conference, and announced that an election would take place on the 22nd of March.

Why an election?

The question is an obvious one. The Sweden Democrats are polling well, with about 14% on average. Another election would only slightly worsen the position of all moderate political parties at the expense of the Sweden Democrats. 

Well, there may be a personal motive for Lofven. A big Sweden Democrat presence, and complete ungovernability for either coalition could give reason for a 'grand coalition', obviously led by the Social Democrats. A government comprised of the Moderate and Social Democrat parties, with another small party (perhaps the Liberals) supporting them would have 216 seats, and would be more stable, at least in terms of a parliamentary majority.

Also, it is important to remember that Lofven, at the moment, has no choice. An inability to pass a budget, and the intransigence of the centre-right means that he is unable to control the current parliament. An election is the only way out, and the possibility of a grand coalition is too slim in the current parliament to delay such an election.

The end of the two-coalition system

For the last 8 years, Swedish elections have been contested between two vague coalitions. The centre-right coalition, called the Alliance for Sweden, is comprised of the Liberal Party (liberalism, pro-Europe), the Moderate Party (conservative), the Christian Democrats (social conservatism), and the Centre Party (liberalism, agrarianism). The centre-left coalition, formerly known as the Red-Greens, is comprised of the Social Democrats (centre-left, social democratic), the Green Party (left-wing, green politics), and the Left Party (post-communist, radical leftist). 

However, this comfortable two-party style competition has ended abruptly with the rise of the Sweden Democrats. This is similar to Italy, where the rise of the 5 Star Movement has meant that neither the left nor the right is able to hold a majority. 

What does this mean? Well, it means that, at least for now, coalitions that bridge the divide between the left and the right will be the norm.

Austria is in a similar situation. The Social Democrats and People's Party are currently in a grand coalition, after neither party were able to form government due to the presence of the far-right liberal Freedom Party. This coalition has reduced the support of both parties at the expense of the Freedom Party and other right-wing populist parties.

A grand coalition will be bad for all parties in it, as the Austrian and German examples have shown. However, it will be necessary to have one, to ensure that Sweden has stable government and fewer snap elections.

Swedish elections-the end for the Reinfeldt government?

On the 14th of September, there will be a general election in Sweden. Sweden has a multi-party system, with one-party governments being incredibly rare. There are eight parties in the Swedish Rikstag (parliament), and the largest party (the Social Democrats) only have about 30% of the seats.

The current government of Sweden is led by Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt. He leads a four-party minority government consisting of the Moderate, Liberal People's, Centre, and Christian Democrats. The government has only 173 seats, and is therefore currently dependent on either one of the opposition parties (Social Democrats, Greens and Left) or the hard-right Sweden Democrats.

The current government has been ruling for two terms: since 2006. It is the first centre-right government to be re-elected in Sweden since the Second World War.

At this election, the opinion polls have consistently had the Social Democrats in the lead, with about 30%-34% of the vote. Technically, they were the largest party at the last election, but they had slightly fewer votes and somewhat smaller coalition parties. With the Greens polling at around 10%, and the Left Party up to around 6-7%, a Red-Green coalition would be very close to a majority, if not actually having one.

An interesting influence on the upcoming election appears to be the Feminist Initiative party. A left-wing, feminist party formed in 2005, the party won its first seats at the recent European Parliament elections, winning 5.5% of the vote. Remember, under Sweden's two-tier district based system of proportional representation, a party needs 4% of the vote to win seats. The Feminist Initiative is polling at around 3%, but, seeing as the party will almost certainly support a red-green coalition, there may be some 'lending' of voters from the Social Democrats or Greens to the Initiative to ensure that the votes are not wasted.

Another important factor in the upcoming election may be the Sweden Democrats. A far-right, anti-immigration party, the Sweden Democrats have only recently entered parliament. At the last election, they won about 5% of the vote, and about 20 seats. The graph below shows how they hold the balance of power.

As you can see, the Sweden Democrats are in a somewhat pivotal position. Seeing as they are polling at around 8-10%, if the Red-Greens fall short of a majority, their support may be key to some government measures. The Sweden Democrats are left of centre on economic issues, so it appears likely that programs dealing with increased social spending would not be held up by the party.

Swedish politics has changed significantly over the past decades. The old hegemony for the Social Democrats has disappeared (even if they win this election, the performance will still be one of the worst for them as a party). The right-wing has new power, the Green Party has established itself as an essential part of any future Social Democrat government, and, perhaps most importantly, the Sweden Democrats, a previously marginalised group, have new and previously unimagined power.

UPDATE 16/09: The results are in. The Sweden Democrats did rather well (12.9% and 49 seats, a virtual doubling of their support). The Moderates did badly, losing 23 seats and slumping to 23.2% of the vote. The Feminist Initiative did not cross the threshold, ending up with 3.1% and no seats.

The Red-Green coalition do not have a majority (158 out of 175 needed for a majority) and the more left-leaning rightist parties (the Centre or Liberal People's parties) have rejected a deal with the Red-Greens. The most likely outcome is a minority Red-Green government.